The Prisoners Dilemma

2 June 2024

Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, published in 1944 by Princeton University Press, is a book by mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern which is considered the ground-breaking text that created the interdisciplinary research field of game theory. An early product of game theory is the prisoners dilemma. Take the following example:

Three of us have broken into a house and stashed the loot. We get caught by the cops and put into separate cells. Our lawyers tell us, they have not found the loot. We are fine if none of us talk. We each get one year for damage to property. That is three years time served in total. Good cop comes in and tells us each of us if we confess he will get one of us off on a plea bargain. The other two will do five years for theft. Ten years in total served. Good cop goes to the weakest prisoner and bad cop goes to the second offenders.

Good cop tells us we have five minutes to make up our minds because bad cop is making the same offer to the others. Now the obvious move is none of us talk and we walk after one year.

Or is it?

In empirical studies the majority of prisoners talk! It gets even worse if the three prisoners each blame each other. Good cop wins.

Now apply it in real life. ANC is good cop, DA, EFF and MK are the prisoners. Instead of taking one year to get over our differences, and sweep the ANC out of power, DA bursts into tears and confesses. EFF and MK will spend five years in red and orange overalls. In the prisoners dilemma it is usually best to be the first to confess. Until you find that good cop breaks his word...



Now take a step back, stop looking at the blonde, and consider that the ONLY coalition that can actually take South Africa forward, The golden coalition of DA, EFF, MK (47%) and 4% of a minority party. (51%).

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